Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Maize (Zea mays) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Liu, Chuang 1 ; Yang, Huiyi 2 ; Gongadze, Kate 2 ; Harris, Paul 2 ; Huang, Mingbin 3 ; Wu, Lianhai 2 ;
作者机构： 1.Anhui Acad Agr Sci, Inst Soil & Fertilizer, Key Lab Nutrient Cycling Resources & Environm Anh, Hefei 230001, Peoples R China
2.Rothamsted Res, Okehampton EX20 2SB, Devon, England
3.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Xianyang 712100, Peoples R China
4.Univ Greenwich, Fac Engn & Sci, Nat Resources Inst, Chatham ME4 4TB, Kent, England
5.Univ Bristol, Dept Aerosp Engn, Bristol BS8 1TS, Avon, England
关键词： SPACSYS; crop failure; soil organic carbon; modelling; Loess
期刊名称：AGRICULTURE-BASEL （ 影响因子：3.408； 五年影响因子：3.459 ）
ISSN：
年卷期： 2022 年 12 卷 5 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985-2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020-2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0-30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30-100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.
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